We consider the problem of identifying parameters of a particular class of Markov chains, called Bernoulli Autoregressive (BAR) processes. The structure of any BAR model is encoded by a directed graph. Incoming edges to a node in the graph indicate that the state of the node at a particular time instant is influenced by the states of the corresponding parental nodes in the previous time instant. The associated edge weights determine the corresponding level of influence from each parental node. In the simplest setup, the Bernoulli parameter of a particular node's state variable is a convex combination of the parental node states in the previous time instant and an additional Bernoulli noise random variable. This paper focuses on the problem of edge weight identification using Maximum Likelihood (ML) estimation and proves that the ML estimator is strongly consistent for two variants of the BAR model. We additionally derive closed-form estimators for the aforementioned two variants and prove their strong consistency.

We present a dynamic prediction framework for binary sequences that is based on a Bernoulli generalization of the auto-regressive process. Our approach lends itself easily to variants of the standard link prediction problem for a sequence of time dependent networks. Focusing on this dynamic network link prediction/recommendation task, we propose a novel problem that exploits additional information via a much larger sequence of auxiliary networks and has important real-world relevance. To allow discovery of links that do not exist in the available data, our model estimation framework introduces a regularization term that presents a trade-off between the conventional link prediction and this discovery task. In contrast to existing work our stochastic gradient based estimation approach is highly efficient and can scale to networks with millions of nodes. We show extensive empirical results on both actual product-usage based time dependent networks and also present results on a Reddit based data set of time dependent sentiment sequences.

We introduce a novel multivariate random process producing Bernoulli outputs per dimension, that can possibly formalize binary interactions in various graphical structures and can be used to model opinion dynamics, epidemics, financial and biological time series data, etc. We call this a Bernoulli Autoregressive Process (BAR). A BAR process models a discrete-time vector random sequence of $p$ scalar Bernoulli processes with autoregressive dynamics and corresponds to a particular Markov Chain. The benefit from the autoregressive dynamics is the description of a $2^p\times 2^p$ transition matrix by at most $pd$ effective parameters for some $d\ll p$ or by two sparse matrices of dimensions $p\times p^2$ and $p\times p$, respectively, parameterizing the transitions. Additionally, we show that the BAR process mixes rapidly, by proving that the mixing time is $O(\log p)$. The hidden constant in the previous mixing time bound depends explicitly on the values of the chain parameters and implicitly on the maximum allowed in-degree of a node in the corresponding graph. For a network with $p$ nodes, where each node has in-degree at most $d$ and corresponds to a scalar Bernoulli process generated by a BAR, we provide a greedy algorithm that can efficiently learn the structure of the underlying directed graph with a sample complexity proportional to the mixing time of the BAR process. The sample complexity of the proposed algorithm is nearly order-optimal as it is only a $\log p$ factor away from an information-theoretic lower bound. We present simulation results illustrating the performance of our algorithm in various setups, including a model for a biological signaling network.